Last week at this time, I wrote that if the Pirates are still holding on to a playoff spot on the morning of August 20, they would be in pretty good shape to close out the magical season with a playoff berth. After today’s grueling 19 inning win over the Cardinals, they wrapped up those 7 games against L.A. and St. Louis at 3 wins and 4 losses, by winning 3 of the last 4. And despite trailing Cincinnati by 6.5 games in the NL Central, they lead the Giants by 1 game, the Cardinals by 2 games and D’Backs by 5 games for the second and final Wild Card, and are back to within 3 of the Braves for hosting that Wild Card game. Heck, the Pirates today won for the 67th time this season. They won 67 or few games in 5 of the past 7 seasons. And if they win tomorrow night, #68 will be as many of 6 of the last 7. The must finish only 14-27 to get to the now anti-climactic yet elusive .500 mark.
With 41 games remaining, I thought it would be a good time to take a look at the remaining road for the Pirates, as well as the teams they are battling, in an effort to see what to expect over the final 7 weeks of the 2012 Major League Baseball season.
Pittsburgh is actually really close to a relatively easy stretch of baseball again, and appear to have survived a really tough August with an 8-10 record so far this month. The month closes out with 3 in San Diego, 4 against the Brewers (first 3 at home) and 3 at home against St. Louis. Not a bad stretch at all, and the Pirates should get back to .500 or better for the month. And then the schedule gets easy. As a matter of fact, from today forward, the Pirates play exactly 3 games on the road the rest of the entire season that have a winning record. Those 3 games, in Cincinnati, are the toughest stretch left this season. In fact, the Pirates play only 12 games total, home or away, against teams with a .500 record or better out of the remaining 41 games on the schedule. 6 against Cincinnati, those 3 at home against St. Louis, and three to close out the year at home against the Braves. The other 29 games they play all comes against sub-.500 teams playing out the string and taking a look at rookies for next year.
Cincinnati, of course, by playing in the NL Central, enjoys a lot of the same benefits that the Pirates do in terms of schedule. But they had that super soft schedule in July and August, when they stretched out their lead a bit. Now, the Reds come back to reality a little more, starting with 4 games on the road against an improving Philadephia team this week, followed by 3 against St. Louis and then 3 in the desert against Arizona. Then in September, they also get the Phillies for 3 more, the Dodgers for 3, the Marlins for 3, the Pirates for 6 before closing out their season at St. Louis. As a matter of fact, of the Reds remaining 40 games, they play 18 of 40 against .500 or better teams, with 9 of those games on the road. And of the teams they play with sub .500 records, 10 of those games are against Philadelphia and Miami, both of whom are decent and dangerous baseball teams – and 7 of those 10 are on the road for the Reds. The Reds play a total of 22 of their last 40 on the road. Will that be enough for the Pirates to catch Cincinnati for the NL Central crown? There is a pretty good chance, depending on how well the Pirates can take care of business on their own.
But if the Pirates don’t catch the Reds in the NL Central this year, how do the Wild Card competitors stand up as far as remaining schedules go?
Well, the Dodgers have a brutal schedule to finish the year. L.A. plays 25 of their final 40 games against teams that are .500 or better, with 11 of those games on the road. They have 9 games left against San Francisco and 6 left against Arizona, with September also bringing 4 against St. Louis and 3 on the road against both Washington and Cincinnati. They also have 3 against Miami mixed in there, which is one of the better teams with a losing record. The good news for the Dodgers is that they play 23 of those 40 at home, but still… that is a brutal stretch to close out the season.
San Francisco may have taken its biggest hit for the remainder of the season earlier this week when they lost probably their strongest offensive player in Melky Cabrera for a steroids suspension. The Giants’ next seven games will go a long way on determining if they are going to be able to keep it together to make a run or not. They travel to L.A. to play the Dodgers for 3 games, and then get the Braves in town for 4. Including those 7 games, the Giants play 22 of their final 41 games against teams with winning records, which includes 9 against the Dodgers and 9 against Arizona, as well as those 4 against Atlanta this week.
Arizona has been hanging around for a while, and while they have the most ground to make up, their path is a bit easier than their two NL West counterparts. The D’Backs play 18 of their remaining 40 games against teams with a winning record, 10 of those on the road. 9 of their remaining games are against San Francisco, 6 against the Dodgers and 3 against the Reds.
And that leaves Atlanta, the team currently leading the chase for home field advantage in that one game playoff race. The Braves kick off a tough 10 game road trip tomorrow with 3 at Washington, 4 in San Francisco, and then 3 in San Diego. After that stretch, things become significantly more easy for the Braves, facing plenty of Mets, Rockies, Brewers, and Phillies in September sandwiched around some games against Washington in there as well. In all, the Braves play only 13 games the rest of the way against teams .500 or better. The good news is that 10 of those 13 are on the road, with the final three in Pittsburgh to end the season.
So while the Braves shouldn’t be challenged much throughout the end of the season, their schedule is still challenging, especially compared to the Pirates. The Buccos have the softest schedule out of any of the contending teams from here on out, so there should be no excuses for not making the playoffs at this point. Some timely wins against the Reds and a little help along the way, and the Pirates will likely be challenging for the Central division crown during the last week of the season – and with 29 of the next 35 games against some really bad baseball teams, the Pirates must take care of business until those last six games of the year.
Category: Pirates News